UK petrol prices have risen by around 24p per litre since late February 2026, when the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil supply passed. Petrol now averages 150.53p per litre and diesel 164.52p — the highest levels in over three years. This article explains what happened, how the situation has evolved, what the outlook is, and what UK drivers can do to reduce the impact on their fuel bills.
What happened in February 2026?
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran in response to escalating regional tensions. Iran responded by moving to close the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the wider ocean. The Strait is the world's most strategically important oil chokepoint.
Before the conflict, approximately 3,000 vessels passed through the Strait each month. Iran's Revolutionary Guard issued warnings forbidding passage, attacked merchant vessels and laid sea mines. Tanker traffic fell to around 5% of pre-conflict levels within weeks. The International Energy Agency described it as the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global market — bigger than the 1973 Arab oil embargo or the 1979 Iranian revolution.
How did UK petrol prices respond?
UK petrol prices were relatively stable between summer 2025 and early 2026, averaging around 135p per litre. The conflict drove a sharp spike:
- February 2026: Petrol at 135-138p per litre before conflict
- March 2026: Rapid rise to 152.9p as markets priced in supply disruption
- April 2026: Diesel peaked at 192.14p — the highest since the 2022 Ukraine war spike
- May 2026: Petrol peaked at 158.78p
- June 2026: Petrol at 150.53p, diesel easing to 164.52p
The partial easing in diesel reflects some OPEC+ production adjustments and softening global demand. Petrol has proved more stubborn and remains near its peak.
Why haven't prices risen even more?
Given that the Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil supply, many analysts expected prices to spike far higher. Several factors have cushioned the impact on UK pump prices:
Strategic reserve releases
The UK and other IEA member countries released strategic petroleum reserves to offset the supply disruption, adding supply to the market and dampening price increases.
Alternative suppliers increased output
The US, Norway, West Africa and other non-Gulf producers increased production to partially compensate for reduced Gulf supply. US shale producers in particular responded quickly to higher prices.
UK's partial insulation from Gulf oil
The UK sources a significant proportion of its oil from the North Sea and Norway, reducing direct exposure to Gulf disruption compared to more Gulf-dependent economies.
Demand softening
Economic uncertainty following the conflict reduced oil demand in some major economies, providing a partial counterweight to supply fears.
Where does the situation stand in June 2026?
A ceasefire was agreed in early April 2026, which briefly eased wholesale costs. However, peace talks have stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to normal tanker traffic. The situation is best described as a frozen conflict rather than a resolution — neither escalating significantly nor resolving.
The IEA estimates that even if the Strait reopens fully, it will take several months to clear sea mines, restore shipping insurance to normal levels and work through the backlog of approximately 2,000 vessels that accumulated in the Gulf during the closure.
What does this mean for fuel prices in the second half of 2026?
Three scenarios remain possible:
Optimistic — prices fall to around 140-145p
A lasting diplomatic resolution reopens the Strait and Brent crude retreats to $80-85 per barrel. UK petrol prices would follow within 2-4 weeks. This requires geopolitical progress that has not yet materialised.
Base case — prices hold around 155-162p
The conflict continues at current low intensity. Oil markets maintain a risk premium but prices do not spike significantly higher. This is the most likely scenario given current conditions.
Pessimistic — prices rise above 165p
Conflict escalates or peace talks collapse, pushing crude above $130 per barrel. UK petrol could breach 165-170p per litre.
The September 2026 fuel duty increase of 1p per litre adds a further headwind regardless of oil prices — see our fuel duty guide for full details.
A timeline of the crisis and its impact on UK fuel prices
Understanding how events have unfolded helps explain where prices are now and why they have not fallen despite the April ceasefire:
- 28 February 2026: US and Israel launch airstrikes on Iran. Oil markets immediately price in supply disruption risk. Brent crude rises sharply.
- Early March 2026: Iran's Revolutionary Guard begins restricting Strait of Hormuz traffic. UK petrol rises from 135p to approximately 145p per litre.
- Mid-March 2026: Tanker traffic through the Strait falls to approximately 5% of normal levels. The IEA calls it the largest supply disruption in history. Brent crude peaks above $125 per barrel.
- Late March 2026: UK petrol reaches 152.9p, diesel 182.7p. Diesel gap vs petrol widens to record levels as diesel is more heavily affected by Gulf supply disruption.
- Mid-April 2026: Diesel peaks at 192.14p per litre — highest since July 2022. Petrol continues rising.
- 8 April 2026: Ceasefire agreed. Wholesale costs briefly ease. Pump prices show modest falls.
- Late April 2026: Ceasefire proves fragile. IRGC claims violations. Strait remains effectively closed. Prices stabilise at elevated levels.
- Late May 2026: Petrol peaks at 158.78p. Diesel begins gradual retreat from April peak.
- June 2026: Petrol 150.53p, diesel 164.52p. Situation described as frozen conflict. Peace talks stalled.
How the conflict compares to previous oil price shocks
Context is helpful when assessing the current situation. UK petrol peaked at 191.6p per litre on 3 July 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and associated energy market disruption. The current peak of 158.78p, while painful, is approximately 33p per litre below the 2022 record.
The 1973 Arab oil embargo caused a quadrupling of oil prices globally and severe fuel shortages in the UK, including the introduction of petrol rationing. The 1979 Iranian revolution caused a doubling of oil prices. By historical standards, the 2026 Hormuz disruption, while significant, has had a more moderate impact on UK pump prices, partly due to the diversification of global oil supply since the 1970s.
The House of Commons Library confirms that prices between summer 2025 and early 2026 were relatively stable at around 135p for petrol and 143p for diesel, making the approximately 24p rise since February 2026 a significant but not unprecedented spike in historical context. (source)
The role of fuel duty in amplifying price changes
UK fuel duty of 52.95p per litre acts as a floor on pump prices. When crude oil falls, pump prices follow — but they can never fall below the level of duty plus VAT plus minimal refining and retail costs. This means UK drivers benefit less from oil price falls than drivers in lower-tax countries, but conversely the impact of oil price rises is also partially cushioned as duty represents a fixed cost rather than a percentage.
The confirmed duty rise from September 2026 — 1p per litre, then 2p in December and 2p in March 2027 — means drivers face upward pressure from tax even if oil prices ease. Our fuel duty guide explains exactly how the tax is structured and what it costs drivers annually.
What can UK drivers do?
You cannot control oil prices or geopolitics, but you can control where you fill up and how efficiently you drive.
- Compare prices before every fill-up. Use our live fuel price map — prices vary by 8-15p per litre between stations within 10 miles of each other.
- Use supermarket forecourts. Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury's and Morrisons consistently price 5-10p below branded stations.
- Avoid motorway services. Currently charging 15-25p per litre more than nearby alternatives.
- Improve fuel efficiency. Read our MPG improvement guide — smoother driving alone can improve efficiency by up to 15%.
- Calculate your annual exposure. Use our fuel cost calculator to see exactly how much the price rise is costing you annually.
Tracking prices in real time
With prices changing weekly in response to geopolitical developments, it is more important than ever to check prices before you fill up. Our live fuel price map shows current prices at over 7,900 UK stations, updated every hour from the Government's mandatory Fuel Finder data. The price trends chart shows exactly how petrol and diesel prices have moved since the conflict began, with data going back to April 2026 when our price history database began recording hourly snapshots.
Our regional prices page shows how your area compares to the national average — useful for drivers who travel between regions and want to know whether to fill up before or after their journey.
Sources
- RAC Fuel Watch
- IEA Oil Market Report
- House of Commons Library — fuel prices briefing
- Government weekly fuel price statistics
Related guides
- Will petrol prices go down in 2026?
- UK fuel price forecast June 2026 — updated analysis
- Why petrol prices rise fast but fall slowly
- UK fuel duty 2026 — how much tax do you pay?
- UK petrol and diesel price chart
- Find the cheapest petrol near you — updated hourly
- E10 compatibility checker — is your car compatible?