UK petrol prices have risen sharply in 2026, driven primarily by the conflict in the Middle East that began in late February. With petrol now averaging around 156p per litre and diesel at 188p, drivers are asking the same question: will fuel prices come down in May 2026? Here is what the data and experts suggest.
What is driving UK fuel prices in 2026?
The primary driver of the current high fuel prices is the conflict that broke out in the Middle East in late February 2026. The conflict has raised fears about disruption to oil supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil passes. Even though physical supply has not been significantly disrupted yet, the threat alone has pushed oil prices significantly higher.
Brent crude oil — the international benchmark that determines UK wholesale fuel costs — rose sharply following the outbreak of conflict and has remained elevated. Higher crude oil costs flow through to UK pump prices within days through the wholesale fuel market.
Will petrol prices fall in May 2026?
The honest answer is that it depends almost entirely on whether the Middle East conflict escalates or de-escalates in the coming weeks. There are three broad scenarios:
Scenario 1 — Conflict de-escalates (prices fall)
If a ceasefire or diplomatic resolution reduces the threat to oil supply routes, crude oil prices would likely fall back towards pre-conflict levels. In this scenario, UK petrol prices could fall by 8-12p per litre through May and June. Supermarket forecourts would likely lead the way, with prices potentially returning to the low 140s by summer.
Scenario 2 — Situation stabilises (prices hold)
If the conflict continues but does not escalate further, oil markets may accept the new risk premium and prices could stabilise at current levels. In this case petrol prices would remain around 155-160p through May, with little movement in either direction.
Scenario 3 — Conflict escalates (prices rise further)
If the conflict spreads or physical oil infrastructure is damaged, prices could rise further. Some analysts have cited the possibility of oil reaching $130-150 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, which could push UK petrol prices above 170p per litre.
What are forecasters predicting?
The RAC and AA have both flagged that current prices are being driven by geopolitical uncertainty rather than fundamental supply and demand, suggesting prices could fall relatively quickly if the situation improves. However both organisations have cautioned against expecting an immediate return to pre-conflict prices. (source)
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has suggested oil prices might stabilise around $120 per barrel for several months before gradually recovering, implying UK petrol prices may remain elevated through at least the first half of 2026.
What about fuel duty — will the government cut it?
The government froze fuel duty at 52.95p per litre in the 2026 Spring Statement, maintaining the freeze that has been in place since 2022. There has been no indication of an emergency duty cut in response to current prices, though pressure from motoring groups is increasing. A 5p duty cut — similar to the temporary cut introduced in 2022 — would cost the Treasury around £3 billion per year.
How to protect yourself from high fuel prices now
- Use Save at the Pump to find the cheapest fuel near you — updated every hour.
- Fill up at supermarkets. Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury's and Morrisons are consistently 5-10p cheaper per litre than branded stations.
- Improve your MPG. Read our 15 MPG improvement tips.
- Avoid motorway services. Currently charging 15-25p per litre more than off-motorway alternatives.
- Use our Worth the Drive Calculator to check whether driving to a cheaper station actually saves money.
Where are prices cheapest in the UK right now?
Our regional fuel price tracker shows live average prices across all UK regions, updated hourly. Use the live map to find the cheapest station within your chosen radius right now.
Related guides
- Why UK fuel prices are rising in 2026 — the full background
- Why prices rise fast but fall slowly
- UK fuel prices by region today — live regional price tracker
- Calculate your annual fuel cost at current and forecast prices
- E10 compatibility checker — check your car by registration